The geopolitical contours of a post-COVID-19 world

2 May 2020

Author: Deepanshu Mohan, OP Jindal Global University

While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy is more dramatic than any other shock in recent history, the consequences of the virus for the geopolitical order could be even more consequential. A radical shift in the global political economy may be imminent in the post-COVID-19 world.

This shift is conditional on two factors. The first factor is the relative degree of economic recovery seen in nations affected by the pandemic. The second factor is the very different domestic political scenarios that now exist in many affected nations.

Before the pandemic, populism — and its coercive authoritarian tendencies which see the nation-state strengthen in a backlash against the multilateral-globalist order — was on the rise. The outbreak of the pandemic has provided an opportunity for most states to either increase or retract multilateral cooperation.

As the crisis unfolds, critical multilateral arrangements like the G20 are not presenting a unified front. The United States and China have also faced criticism for displaying weak global leadership.

The United States under President Donald Trump is showcasing an inability to lead efforts to fight the virus, let alone offer necessary aid to other countries. Instead, the United States has threatened to undertake protectionist measures to restrict exports of essential medical equipment to neighbours like Canada. Trump is also halting US contributions to the World Health Organization (WHO).

China, on the other hand, has utilised the opportunity to push its state-propaganda internationally, while emerging as a ‘costly’ global supplier of medical equipment. Despite providing for the increased short-term demand for medical supplies, China has continued to receive severe criticism for its information censorship.

In a post-COVID-19 world, many developed nations may consider disentangling direct trade relations with China and decoupling supply chains to restrict the flow of goods and services into and from China.

UNCDF Tanzania working for poverty alleviatton through working with local organisations

Kigoma is the poorest region in Tanzania and is one of only two regions in the country where poverty rates increased between 2001 and 20121.

To work to reverse the trend, UNCDF Tanzania has been implementing a programme since 2017 to improve agricultural livelihoods, provide access to finance, and build financial and digital literacy in the region.

In the region, UNCDF is working with a number of international and local NGOs to develop and deliver financial education. While UNCDF has been working with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) and Good Neighbors Tanzania (GNTZ), we have recently begun working with two new local organizations to reach more farmers and members of the Tanzanian community.

One of the new local organizations is the Kigoma Youth Agricultural Development Organization (KIYADO), a local non-profit humanitarian organization that plans, implements, and raises funds for implementing livelihood projects. Another is the Ministry of Agriculture Training Institute (MATI), a government institution under the Ministry of Agriculture of Tanzania that provides educational programs in agricultural, environmental, and applied technologies.

To train the two new partners on the UNCDF package of financial education materials and to work together to create a plan on disseminating materials and continuing financial education activities, UNCDF held a one-day Training of Trainers (ToT) workshop on 5th March in Kibondo, a town in the Kigoma Region. 19 participants from KIYADO and MATI attended the training.